Republican money moves from House races to Senate firewalls in Ohio and Kansas

By Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON — With 18 days left before the midterms, Republican money is leaving swing House districts and pouring into Senate seats the party expected to hold without much trouble. FEC filings through Friday show where it is landing. Outside groups have reported more than $56 million against Sherrod Brown in Ohio in the first half of October. Kansas has drawn about $11 million against the Democratic nominee in two weeks. And in Wyoming, a nonpartisan forecaster no longer rates the state’s lone House seat as safe.

Why it matters

Late money is a party’s most honest forecast. On Tuesday, the Associated Press reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House Republican super PAC, had canceled advertising in four districts: Iowa’s 1st, New Jersey’s 7th, Ohio’s 1st around Cincinnati and Michigan’s 8th. Those races had accounted for $13.3 million in CLF spending, more than 12 percent of its total through Oct. 13. A MAGA Inc. offshoot pulled nearly $1 million from Nevada’s 3rd District. In the Senate, the AP reported, the Senate Leadership Fund has added Kansas, South Carolina and Nebraska, none of them in its original $342 million plan, while pulling back from Georgia and North Carolina.

“The economic environment has not been good,” David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, told the AP. Stu Sandler, a Republican strategist, pointed to the other side of the ledger: “Republican resources are at a high. They’ve never been this well-funded in the midterm.”

Ohio: the most expensive firewall

Ohio is where the money is concentrated. FEC data already processed show $119.2 million in independent expenditures against Brown, the former senator trying to unseat Sen. Jon Husted. That includes $64.1 million from SLF PAC and $31.1 million from American Crossroads.

October has added much more. Twenty-four-hour notices filed from Oct. 1 through Friday list about $56.7 million in new spending against Brown, by the Inquisitor’s count, led by SLF PAC at $25.9 million. A group called 75 PAC reported $8 million; Defend American Jobs, a crypto-industry-backed super PAC, $7.2 million; Americans for Prosperity Action, $4.7 million; and America PAC, the group funded by Elon Musk, $2.7 million. The cryptocurrency group Fairshake has brought its pro-Husted spending to $45 million, according to the AP.

The campaigns themselves are almost a side show. Brown’s committee reported raising $23.1 million in the third quarter but ended September with $4.86 million in cash, according to its raw FEC filing. Husted raised $4.85 million and had $8.88 million on hand.

Kansas: a late surge

Kansas is the newest front. Sen. Roger Marshall raised $800,617.52 in the third quarter and finished with $922,088.02, his filing shows. His Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton, reported raising $9.36 million in the same period and had $3.18 million left, according to his Oct. 15 report.

Republican groups have moved to fill the gap. October 24-hour notices list about $11 million against Hamilton, led by SLF PAC at $5.8 million, Club for Growth Action at $2.2 million, Win It Back PAC at $1.5 million and Americans for Prosperity Action at $1 million. Democratic-aligned groups have answered with about $9 million against Marshall, led by People Over Politics Action Fund at $3.7 million and WinSenate at $3.3 million. The fight began earlier on a smaller scale: in the third quarter, Main Street Fund reported about $2 million against Hamilton, and People Over Politics Action Fund about $3.4 million against Marshall.

Wyoming: an early warning

Wyoming is a smaller story with a larger signal. Inside Elections now rates the at-large House seat, which Rep. Harriet Hageman is leaving to run for the Senate, as Likely Republican rather than Solid. That is still a long way from competitive, but it is a rare move in a state Trump carried easily.

Secretary of State Chuck Gray won a nine-way Republican primary in August with 25.4 percent of the vote, Cowboy State Daily reported. Trump did not endorse in the race. Gray finished September with $167,889 in cash, according to FEC data. A super PAC called Protecting Wyoming Values has spent about $1.58 million supporting him. Cowboy State Daily reported in August that the group’s money had come entirely from Gray’s father as of late July. Democratic nominee Lisa Kinney has $27,250 on hand. The only new outside spending reported in the race this month is about $148,000 supporting Gray, from a group called WY Action.

What to watch

The map now runs through states Trump won comfortably in 2024: Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina and Nebraska, where the AP reported SLF committed $15 million to protect Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn. Every dollar spent there is a dollar not spent in Iowa’s 1st or New Jersey’s 7th. Democrats face their own limits. The party’s House campaign arm launched a $17 million fundraising drive with an Oct. 22 deadline to reach districts that had looked out of reach, according to the AP.

The FEC’s pre-general reports, due Oct. 22 and covering spending through Oct. 14, will show whether the October spike is a final push or the start of a longer retreat.

Note on the numbers: October totals are the Inquisitor’s tally of 24- and 48-hour independent-expenditure notices filed through Oct. 16, counting each expenditure once. Notices can be amended, and some groups report estimates. Processed totals are FEC-coded figures.

Image: Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), official portrait. U.S. Senate photo via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.