The Iran war’s gas bill: a record run above $4, and it lands hardest outside the Beltway

By Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON — Gasoline has now cost $4 a gallon or more for longer this year than in any year on record, and the Iran war that pushed it there showed no sign of easing on Friday. Brent crude briefly reached $110 a barrel.

The nationwide numbers hide wide regional differences. A driver in California is paying more than $6.20 a gallon for regular. In North Carolina it is under $3.70. Diesel, which moves nearly everything Americans buy, costs nearly $8.50 a gallon in California and more than $6 in much of the country. With 18 days left before the Nov. 3 midterms, the cost of the war shows up most clearly at the pump, and that cost falls very unevenly.

A record, however you count it

The national average for regular was $4.33 on Friday, according to AAA. Before the war began in February, it was $2.98.

Different trackers keep the record slightly differently. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan counted 158 days at or above $4 in 2026 as of mid-October, the most in any calendar year, ABC News reported. A CNN review of AAA data found that Oct. 13 was the 165th such day, passing the previous record of 158 set in 2022. Both counts show the same thing: the country has never spent this long above $4.

There is little near-term relief in the oil market. Brent settled at $109.86 on Friday and U.S. crude at $101.41, CNBC reported. At least nine ships have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, and tanker flows through the strait are running at about 9.4 million barrels a day, roughly 70% of prewar levels, according to data firm Kpler.

The West pays the most

AAA’s state averages for Friday show a clear geographic pattern. The West Coast and Mountain West are paying the most: California at $6.22, Hawaii $5.64, Nevada $5.42, Washington $5.41 and Oregon $4.97. Alaska, Idaho and Utah are all above $4.80.

The industrial Midwest is next. Illinois averages $4.71 and Michigan $4.55, with Pennsylvania at $4.46 and New York at $4.43.

The cheapest gas is in the Southeast and along the Gulf. North Carolina ($3.67), Georgia ($3.76), Texas ($3.82), Tennessee ($3.87) and South Carolina ($3.89) are among the 14 states still below $4.

The capital region is split. Gas in the District averages $4.42, higher than in suburban Maryland ($4.16) or Virginia ($4.10). That is 26 to 32 cents a gallon more than commuters pay across the river or the state line.

Diesel is the bigger story for rural America

For farmers, truckers and anyone who buys goods that travel by truck, diesel matters more than gasoline. The national average reached $6.33 on Friday, according to AAA figures cited by CNBC. ABC reported that diesel is up about 66% since the war began. By state, diesel costs $8.49 in California and more than $7.20 in Washington and Hawaii. It costs $6.83 in Nevada, $6.57 in Pennsylvania and $6.47 in Michigan. North Carolina has the country’s cheapest diesel at $5.65.

Those costs feed into food, freight and heating. The Energy Information Administration expects heating oil to cost about 21% more this winter, CNN reported, a particular burden in the Northeast, where many homes still use it. Airfares are up 23%.

The household bill

Gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s overall increase in consumer prices, according to ABC’s reading of the Labor Department’s figures. Gas prices rose more than 9% from August.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates that the war has cost U.S. households about $265 billion, or nearly $2,000 per household. About $1,100 of that comes from higher energy costs, a figure he said is rising by about $50 a week. Higher interest rates and military spending account for most of the rest, CNN reported. Mortgage rates have climbed to around 7.4%. A White House spokesperson dismissed Zandi to CNN as “a Democrat donor who is frequently wrong.”

The map behind the map

The places paying the most do not line up neatly with any one party. Several of the most expensive states, including California, Washington, Oregon and Illinois, reliably vote Democratic. But Nevada, Arizona ($4.65), Michigan and Pennsylvania are all paying more than the national average, and all four have been central to recent national elections. In the Southern states where gas is cheapest, drivers are still paying roughly 70 to 85 cents a gallon more than before the war, and diesel costs more than $5.60 even in North Carolina and Georgia.

Unlike most economic statistics, this one is posted on a sign at every corner. For most of the country it has read above $4 for most of the year, and the waterway that sets the price is still contested 18 days before Election Day.

Photo: A gas station price sign in Fort Pierre, S.D. (file photo, 2022). Tony Webster / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.