Vance leads, Rubio rises: the early shape of the 2028 Republican race

By Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance is the clear front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination in every public poll. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he has no plans to run. And yet the question of which of them inherits President Trump’s coalition has become one of the most-discussed subplots in Republican politics, three weeks before a midterm election that could reshape what primary voters want.

Neither man has filed a 2028 presidential statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. The race will not formally begin until after Nov. 3. But the polling, the travel and the speeches are already shaping it.

Why it matters

A term-limited president’s vice president usually starts with a large advantage, and Vance has one. Rubio’s numbers matter because they show that part of the Trump coalition is open to an alternative at a moment when the party is pulling money out of competitive House races and bracing for losses. If November goes badly, the argument over who best carries the movement forward will begin immediately, and the two leading candidates both work for Trump.

The numbers

The national picture favors Vance. A Center Square poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights Oct. 5-7 found Vance at 44 percent among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, his highest share in five surveys the outlet has run since October 2025. Rubio was second at 18 percent, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 8 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 5 percent.

The breakdowns are more revealing. Vance’s support was flat across demographic groups, in the 40s almost everywhere, and reached 50 percent among Midwestern respondents. Rubio’s varied widely by age, from 7 percent among voters under 30 to 26 percent among those 65 and older. Older voters are reliable primary voters, which is why Rubio’s support among them deserves attention.

New Hampshire, which holds the first Republican primary, is closer. A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released in July had Vance at 36 percent and Rubio at 26 percent among likely GOP primary voters, Fox News reported. In UNH’s February survey, Vance had led 53 percent to 7 percent. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley were at 8 percent each. Rubio also finished a close second to Vance in this year’s CPAC straw poll, according to the same report.

What Rubio has said, and what he did in Athens

Rubio’s public position has not changed. He told reporters on Sept. 9 that he has “no plans” to run “at this time,” NBC News reported, a phrase that leaves room to change course. He has also said he would support Vance if the vice president runs, according to Fox.

Then came Athens. On Oct. 7, Rubio spoke at the Pnyx, the hill where ancient Athenians held their assemblies, with the Acropolis behind him. According to the State Department transcript, much of the speech was a meditation on Western civilization, and part of it read like a governing philosophy. “Under President Trump, the United States has made its choice,” Rubio said. “We choose the unapologetic pursuit of national power.” He also called on the West to “rebuild our institutions and our alliances to face these threats together,” arguing that their purpose “is not to abolish the sovereignty of the nations that constitute them; it is to defend them.”

CNN’s Stephen Collinson wrote in an analysis that the speech “will surely reignite speculation around his future presidential intentions,” and that it positioned Rubio as both heir to and modernizer of the “America First” movement. The setting invited comparison with a campaign event. Collinson noted that Rubio echoed the criticism of Europe that Vance made in his 2025 Munich speech. The difference was emphasis: Rubio paired that criticism with a call to repair the alliance.

The Vance position

Vance has avoided any suggestion of rivalry. “Marco is my closest friend in the administration,” he told Fox News’ Martha MacCallum earlier this year, adding that the media “wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict.” Trump said last year that Vance is “most likely” his heir. He has also promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket as “unstoppable” without saying who would lead it, according to Fox.

The midterm variable

The biggest unknown is Nov. 3. Both men’s standing comes largely from their closeness to Trump, said Thad Kousser, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. “Each has drawn strong support because of their proximity to President Trump,” he told The Center Square. Heavy Republican losses could change that calculation, he said: “Proximity to the president could become a liability and primary voters may look for someone with more distance from President Trump instead.”

That is the opening for candidates outside the administration. Paul, DeSantis and Cruz are already in the polling, and Fox reported that Paul is weighing another run as he puts more distance between himself and Trump. For Vance and Rubio, the challenge is the same: neither can separate himself from the president without risking Trump’s support, which still matters most in a Republican primary.

In New Hampshire and South Carolina, where activists will hear from both men if they run, the question after Nov. 3 will be whether the party wants continuity with Trump or a new direction. Rubio’s Athens speech offered a version of both.

Image: Vice President JD Vance swears in Marco Rubio as secretary of state on Jan. 21, 2025. Office of the Vice President photo via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.