Two weeks out, Trump’s approval hits a record low and 7 in 10 Americans call gas unaffordable

By Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON — With two weeks left before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s job approval has fallen to the lowest point of either of his terms in the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, and the issue doing the most damage is the one voters pay for every time they fill a tank.

The survey of 2,545 adults, conducted Oct. 9-13, found 33% approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency and 66% disapprove, according to the poll’s published results. That is below the 38% he registered after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, ABC reported. Among registered voters, his approval was 37%.

Likely voters favored the Democratic candidate in their House district 52% to 44%. Among registered voters the margin was 50% to 42%, up from a 3-point Democratic edge in a July Post-Ipsos poll. Independents who are likely to vote favored Democrats by 21 points, ABC found, and 59% of adults said they would rather see Democrats control the next Congress as a check on Trump.

The cost-of-living problem

Trump’s lowest marks came on the cost of living, which 21% of adults said he is handling well and 77% said he is not. His approval on inflation was 23% and on the economy 28%, the latter a record low across both terms, according to ABC. Seventy-one percent called gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% in February, before the war with Iran drove fuel costs up. Majorities also called health care (65%), groceries (60%) and home energy (57%) unaffordable, and 48% said they were not as well off as when Trump took office.

The pump price has eased but remains far above last year. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline was $4.28 on Tuesday, down from $4.48 a month ago but up from $3.04 a year ago, a rise of about 41%.

Where the squeeze is worst

The pain is not distributed evenly. In AAA’s state averages for Tuesday, Western states pay the most and the Southeast the least:

Price levels are only part of the story. Federal inflation data show gasoline prices rose the most over the past year in the South, where they are cheapest, and the least in the West, as The Inquisitor reported Tuesday. North Carolina and Georgia, which both have Senate races on the ballot, have the two lowest prices in the nation; Michigan, where an open Senate seat is on the ballot, is at $4.46, above the national average.

What the generic ballot has meant before

The generic-ballot question is a rough guide to House races, which are decided district by district. The same poll’s trend data show how the final pre-election readings among registered voters compared with the outcomes in recent midterms, as recorded by the House historian:

The 2010 line is the caution: a Democratic lead among registered voters in that cycle did not survive turnout, and Republicans took the House. This year’s poll also measured likely voters, among whom the Democratic lead was the same 8 points.

Turnout is where the parties are now fighting. In this poll, 72% of Democratic voters and 65% of Republican voters said they were absolutely certain to vote. Voters planning to cast ballots in person on Election Day favored Republicans by 11 points, while those voting early by mail favored Democrats by 26, according to ABC. That pattern means early returns could tilt Democratic in states that count mail ballots first.

Not every number in the poll favors Democrats. Americans trusted Republicans more on crime, by 5 points, and were split on immigration. Both parties are viewed unfavorably: the Democratic Party by 54% and the Republican Party by 63%. Vice President JD Vance’s job approval stood at 37%, with 59% disapproving, according to the topline. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 points for all adults and 2.2 points for registered and likely voters.

The Washington Post’s headline on the poll said the record-low approval rating was handing Democrats a clear midterm edge.

Photo: A gas station price sign in Fort Pierre, South Dakota, in 2022. Tony Webster, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY 2.0.