Trump is right that it’s too early to endorse Vance. Republicans should keep the 2028 race open

Opinion

By Simon Kettering

WASHINGTON — Asked in the Oval Office on Tuesday whether he would endorse Vice President JD Vance for president, with Vance standing behind him, President Trump gave the right answer. “It’s early, very early right now,” he said, according to the Associated Press. “We have to get through the midterms. We’ll see how it goes.”

Much of the coverage treated the moment as a snub. It is better read as good advice, for the Republican Party and for Vance. The 2028 Republican nomination should be decided by Republican voters in a real contest, not settled two years early by the outgoing president.

Vance is the front-runner, not the choice

Vance is clearly ahead. A Focaldata/Financial Times poll this month gave him 38 percent of Republicans, ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 24 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 9 percent, USA Today reported. A 14-point lead is large, but 38 percent is not a majority. Most Republicans in that poll picked someone else or no one.

Vance himself does not sound settled. He told Mark Halperin he thinks Trump would endorse him if he ran, though he said they had not discussed it, according to an account of the interview. A day earlier, at a CBS News town hall, he said “of course there’s a chance” he won’t run, citing his four young children and a wife who “has never loved politics,” USA Today reported. That is a reasonable thing for a 42-year-old father to say. It is also a reason not to clear the field for him.

What an early endorsement would cost

An endorsement from a sitting president with Trump’s hold on his party’s voters would do more than help a candidate. It would discourage others from running, dry up donors for anyone who tried, and turn the primaries into a ratification. Others are already preparing. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has been to Iowa, first on the Republican calendar, three times, and his PAC has spent more than $2.4 million on midterm ads, the AP reported. Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri addressed the Teamsters convention in Nevada in June, according to The Nevada Independent’s tracker. Those are signs of a party getting ready to argue about its future. It should have that argument.

Vance would also benefit from earning the nomination. Our review of his leadership PAC’s filings this week found that more than 99 percent of its $1.42 million came from a joint fundraising committee shared with Trump and the Republican National Committee, and that the transfers stopped in February. A vice president who wants to lead his party after the president who chose him needs donors, staff and a message of his own. A contest is how he would show he has them.

The midterms come first

Trump’s other point is just as sound. The midterms are 12 days away, and the results will tell Republicans more about their coalition than any poll of a hypothetical primary. Vance has campaigned across the country, and the AP wrote that no potential candidate’s fate is as closely tied to Trump’s and the party’s performance. If Republicans lose ground on Nov. 3, voters will want to hear how each would-be nominee would win it back.

The Democrats are already competing in public. Seven potential candidates were scheduled to campaign in Nevada alone this week, by our count. Republicans should not respond by picking a successor early. They should hold a contest that is just as open.

Trump said “we’ll see how it goes.” That is a reasonable position for a president who has two more years in office and a party to hand on. He should keep it.

The Inquisitor asked Vance’s leadership PAC, Working for Ohio, and Trump National Committee JFC, at the addresses in their FEC filings, Sen. Cruz’s and Sen. Hawley’s press offices and the Republican Party of Iowa to respond. Responses will be added.

Opinion pieces reflect the views of The Washington Inquisitor’s editorial staff.

Image: Vice President JD Vance, official portrait, March 2026. Emily J. Higgins/The White House, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.