New Hampshire poll finds Vance and Rubio tied for 2028, separated by three respondents

By Graham Ostrander

WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are tied at 38 percent apiece among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll released Thursday, a result that came down to three respondents out of 734.

On the Democratic side, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led with 28 percent, followed by Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia at 14 percent, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona at 11 percent and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at 10 percent, according to the full results published by the college’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics. California Gov. Gavin Newsom had 8 percent, former Vice President Kamala Harris 5 percent and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker 3 percent. WMUR first reported the 2028 numbers.

The online survey of 1,672 likely voters was conducted Oct. 19 and 20. The Democratic primary question, asked of 784 respondents, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; the Republican question, asked of 734, has a margin of plus or minus 3.6 points. New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary is more than a year away, and none of the people tested has declared a 2028 candidacy.

The Republican numbers

The college’s weighted frequencies show 279 Republican-primary respondents chose Vance and 276 chose Rubio. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had 5 percent, and a candidate listed in the results only as “Kennedy” had 4 percent. Former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas had 1 percent each. Eleven percent were unsure.

The crosstabs, which carry larger margins of error than the toplines, show different coalitions. Vance led among voters who called themselves very conservative, 49 percent to 30 percent, and among those with a high school education or less, 49 to 24. Rubio led among somewhat conservative voters, 46 to 30, and among those with some college or an associate degree, 50 to 33. Vance led among voters 18 to 34, 44 to 23; Rubio had a narrow edge among voters 65 and older, 42 to 39. Registered Republicans and undeclared voters, who can choose either party’s ballot in New Hampshire, split almost identically.

“These are obviously the two front-runners for the Republican nomination, although I think it’s going to open the door for other candidates to come into the state and campaign for president,” Neil Levesque, the institute’s executive director, told WMUR. “It certainly must make for some interesting West Wing meetings.”

The Democratic numbers

Buttigieg’s support was stronger among women (32 percent) than men (22 percent) and peaked among voters 55 to 64, at 35 percent. Among voters 18 to 34, Ocasio-Cortez led with 31 percent, ahead of Ossoff at 21 percent and Buttigieg at 19 percent. Kelly drew 20 percent of voters 65 and older. Nine percent of Democratic-primary respondents were unsure, and no one else tested, including Rep. Ro Khanna of California, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, reached 3 percent.

The same poll found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot in New Hampshire 52 percent to 43 percent and President Donald Trump’s job approval at 38 percent, with 62 percent disapproving, the college said. In the Nov. 3 Senate race, Democrat Chris Pappas led former Sen. John E. Sununu 50 percent to 43 percent.

The Inquisitor sent requests for comment early Friday to the Saint Anselm College Survey Center; Win the Era PAC, Buttigieg’s political committee; Ossoff’s campaign; Working for Ohio, a political committee associated with Vance; and the State Department, about Rubio. None had responded by publication. The Saint Anselm College Survey Center has since sent pages from the published survey.

Photo: The New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. Marc Nozell / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.