Outside groups pour $11.5 million against Wittman as Virginia’s 1st District race enters its final week

By Philippa Langstrom

RICHMOND, Va. — Eight days before Election Day, the race for Virginia’s 1st Congressional District is one of the most expensive and closely watched House contests in the country, and the incumbent, Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.), is being outspent on the airwaves by outside groups working to defeat him.

His Democratic challenger, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, led 50% to 46% among likely voters in a Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted Sept. 23-28 (609 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 4.5 points). A newer survey by Public Policy Polling, conducted Oct. 21-22 for House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC spending against Wittman, showed Taylor at 47% and Wittman at 46%, with 7% undecided. Campaign-sponsored polls should be read with that sponsorship in mind.

President Trump carried the district by about 5 points in 2024, while Wittman won his own race by 13, according to The Post. That gap is a large part of why both parties consider the seat a bellwether for control of the House.

The money

Through the Oct. 14 pre-general reporting deadline, the candidates’ own committees were roughly matched, according to Federal Election Commission filings:

The bigger imbalance is outside spending. Independent expenditures reported to the FEC since Jan. 1, 2025, through Oct. 24 total about $11.5 million opposing Wittman, led by House Majority PAC at about $6.5 million, LCV Victory Fund at about $1.9 million and Your Community PAC at about $1.8 million. Outside groups reported about $2 million supporting Taylor. On the other side, groups reported about $955,000 supporting Wittman and about $630,000 opposing Taylor, including about $119,000 from MAGA Inc. on Oct. 8.

House Majority PAC’s two most recent television buys against Wittman were reported at $1,206,360 on Oct. 20 and $1,000,080 on Oct. 13, according to its 24- and 48-hour reports. (Some groups report the same spending as both support for one candidate and opposition to the other, so the categories above should not be added together.)

The closing arguments

Taylor has framed the race around the war with Iran, government ethics and the cost of living. On Oct. 25 she posted that “Rob Wittman refuses to say we’re at war with Iran,” and on Oct. 24 she promoted an anti-corruption plan.

Wittman, a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee first elected in 2007, has focused his closing on Taylor’s record as a prosecutor. A “Get the Facts” page on his campaign website criticizes her office’s handling of the abuse of premature infants in the neonatal intensive care unit at Henrico Doctors’ Hospital. The page cites an August 2024 email, published by CBS 6, in which an assistant commonwealth’s attorney told hospital counsel she had “No objection at all” to suspended nurses returning after training. It also cites the plea agreement Taylor negotiated with former nurse Erin Strotman, which capped active prison time at three years; the judge imposed 45 years and suspended all but three.

Taylor has defended the outcome. The same campaign page acknowledges that she has described the sentence as far tougher than Virginia’s advisory sentencing guidelines, which recommended up to six months, and that she told CBS 6 her office had no authority over the hospital’s employment decisions.

Outside ads have drawn scrutiny too. In September, WWBT’s 12 On Your Side fact check rated as misleading a Your Community PAC ad claiming Wittman voted to give himself a “$60,000 tax break.” The station found that the figure took the upper end of an outside estimate of his potential tax reduction under the 2025 tax law, which relied on financial disclosures that report only broad ranges, and that Congress had made permanent a broadly available deduction rather than a special provision for him. The station said the PAC did not respond to its questions.

The ground game

Early voting began Sept. 18. The Post-Schar poll found 53% of likely voters wanted Democrats to control the House and nearly 6 in 10 disapproved of Trump’s job performance. Wittman’s favorability was 42% favorable and 44% unfavorable; Taylor’s was 40% favorable and 37% unfavorable.

The Washington Inquisitor has asked the Wittman and Taylor campaigns, House Majority PAC, the Democratic Party of Virginia and the Republican Party of Virginia for comment and will update this story with any response.