WASHINGTON — Outside groups have reported spending $632.9 million on general-election ads, mail and other independent expenditures in U.S. Senate races since Oct. 20, and for the first time this cycle Democratic-aligned spending has pulled ahead of Republican-aligned spending, according to a Washington Inquisitor analysis of Federal Election Commission records.
From Oct. 20 through Nov. 2, spending that supported Democratic candidates or opposed Republicans totaled $307.2 million, compared with $286.6 million that supported Republicans or opposed Democrats. Another $39.1 million went to or against independents and candidates without a party listed in the filings, most of it in Nebraska.
That final-stretch edge reverses a long Republican advantage. Before Oct. 20, Republican-aligned groups had reported $858.3 million in Senate independent expenditures, roughly $400 million more than the $457.8 million reported by Democratic-aligned groups. Over the full cycle, the Republican side still leads, $1.14 billion to $765 million, out of just over $2 billion in total reported Senate independent expenditures.
The analysis is based on the FEC’s bulk independent expenditure file for the 2026 cycle, downloaded early Monday. It follows the same method as the Inquisitor’s Nov. 1 analysis of House races, which found $1.22 billion in outside spending split nearly evenly between the parties.
The final two weeks, race by race
The late money is concentrated in a handful of states that both parties view as deciding the Senate majority. Texas and Ohio together drew more than $240 million in the two weeks since Oct. 20, and Michigan nearly $90 million.
| State | Oct. 20–Nov. 2 total | D side | R side | Full-cycle total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 124.1 | 51.0 | 72.2 | 428.0 |
| Ohio | 116.7 | 60.5 | 53.8 | 384.9 |
| Michigan | 89.8 | 35.8 | 52.2 | 268.9 |
| Iowa | 70.2 | 41.7 | 26.8 | 199.3 |
| Kansas | 56.7 | 36.0 | 18.8 | 99.1 |
| Maine | 38.3 | 18.0 | 20.1 | 143.7 |
| South Carolina | 31.5 | 15.1 | 14.4 | 46.3 |
| Nebraska | 28.9 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 69.6 |
| Alaska | 28.5 | 16.5 | 11.8 | 97.5 |
| New Hampshire | 14.8 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 63.5 |
| Mississippi | 10.0 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 17.2 |
In Texas, where Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton, Republican-aligned groups outspent Democratic-aligned groups by about $21 million in the final two weeks, and most of that money attacked Talarico. Filings list $67.4 million in late spending opposing Talarico, the most against any Senate candidate in the country over that span. Two groups, Texas PAC ($33.3 million) and America PAC ($29.8 million, including $21.5 million opposing Talarico), accounted for much of it. On the other side, Texas Forever ($16.6 million) and Lone Star Rising PAC ($14.1 million) were the largest Democratic-aligned spenders in the state.
Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, was nearly even. Democratic-aligned groups reported $60.5 million and Republican-aligned groups $53.8 million. The largest single items were WinSenate‘s $33 million against Husted and SLF PAC‘s $24.5 million against Brown. SLF PAC is the filing name of the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership; WinSenate is a Democratic super PAC focused on Senate races.
Michigan was one of the few battlegrounds where Republican-aligned groups clearly outspent Democrats in the final stretch, $52.2 million to $35.8 million. Spending opposing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed totaled $41.9 million in the period, including $13.4 million from GLCF Inc. Spending opposing Republican Mike Rogers totaled about $16.3 million.
In Iowa, Democratic-aligned groups reported $41.7 million to Republicans’ $26.8 million. Lower Costs Now spent $14 million supporting Democrat Josh Turek, while SLF PAC spent $13.9 million opposing him and WinSenate spent $11.2 million opposing Republican Ashley Hinson, who appears in the filings as Ashley Hinson Arenholz.
Kansas, long a Republican stronghold, drew $56.7 million in late spending, 57% of everything reported there all cycle. Democratic-aligned groups outspent Republican-aligned groups by almost 2 to 1. WinSenate reported $10.7 million opposing Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, while SLF PAC reported $10.2 million opposing Democrat Adam Hamilton.
In Maine, WinSenate reported $13 million opposing Republican Sen. Susan Collins and SLF PAC $8.3 million opposing Democrat Troy Jackson. In Alaska, where a federal judge on Sunday dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit over the ballot, SLF PAC reported $4 million opposing Democrat Mary Peltola, and spending opposing Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan totaled $11.8 million across all groups. In New Hampshire, WinSenate reported $4.4 million against Republican John Sununu and SLF PAC $3.1 million against Democrat Chris Pappas.
Nebraska is the outlier. Most of the $28.9 million in late spending there was tied to independent Dan Osborn, who is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Filings list $13.8 million opposing Osborn and $5.2 million supporting him. Because Osborn is not a Democrat, that money falls outside the two party columns in the table. Nebraska Values PAC reported $6.6 million opposing Ricketts.
Who is spending
Two super PACs dominate the final weeks. WinSenate reported $108 million in Senate independent expenditures dated Oct. 20 or later, all of it on the Democratic side. SLF PAC reported $95.3 million, including $88.7 million on the Republican side and $6.7 million opposing Osborn in Nebraska.
| Committee | Late spending | Side |
|---|---|---|
| WinSenate | 108.0 | Democratic |
| SLF PAC (Senate Leadership Fund) | 95.3 | Republican |
| Lower Costs Now | 43.0 | Democratic |
| Texas PAC | 33.3 | Republican |
| America PAC | 29.8 | Republican |
| Government That Works PAC | 20.8 | Democratic |
| Texas Forever | 16.6 | Democratic |
| Lone Star Rising PAC | 14.1 | Democratic |
| GLCF Inc. | 13.7 | Republican |
| No Going Back PAC | 13.2 | Republican |
| CFFE PAC | 12.4 | Democratic |
Altogether, 269 committees and other filers reported 3,669 Senate general-election expenditures dated Oct. 20 or later.
How the late surge built
Week by week, the filings show Democratic-aligned spending accelerating through October while Republican-aligned spending peaked earlier. In the week of Sept. 8, Republican-aligned groups reported $117.7 million to Democrats’ $26.5 million. By the week of Oct. 20 the two sides were almost even, and in the final week Democratic-aligned groups led.
| Week beginning | D side | R side |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 1 | 26.1 | 59.7 |
| Sept. 8 | 26.5 | 117.7 |
| Sept. 15 | 43.1 | 84.9 |
| Sept. 22 | 47.2 | 79.2 |
| Sept. 29 | 88.9 | 165.1 |
| Oct. 6 | 86.7 | 129.3 |
| Oct. 13 | 108.5 | 132.5 |
| Oct. 20 | 168.8 | 170.5 |
| Oct. 27–Nov. 2 | 138.3 | 116.1 |
The final week’s figures are likely to rise. Groups must file 24-hour reports for independent expenditures of $1,000 or more made within 20 days of an election, and filings covering the last days of the campaign will continue to arrive after Election Day.
The stakes
The spending lands in a Senate map that has shifted toward Democrats in the final days. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday found El-Sayed leading Rogers by 11 points among 1,011 likely Michigan voters, with a margin of error of 3.6 points, and showed Democratic candidates ahead in Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, The Hill reported. Several of those leads were within the margin of error. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gave Democrats a 62% chance of winning the Senate, according to the same report.
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority. In the final two weeks, WinSenate reported spending in 11 states and SLF PAC in 10, overlapping in nine, including Iowa, Kansas, Alaska and South Carolina, where Republicans are defending seats.
How we did the analysis
The Inquisitor used every Senate general-election record in the FEC’s 2026 independent expenditure bulk file, covering reports received through Oct. 31. Each expenditure was assigned to a side based on the party of the candidate named and whether the spending supported or opposed that candidate. Spending supporting a Democrat or opposing a Republican was counted as Democratic-aligned; the reverse was counted as Republican-aligned. Expenditures tied to independents or to candidates whose party was not listed were counted separately. Where the filing did not list a party, the Inquisitor used the candidate’s party in the FEC’s candidate records.
Dates are dissemination dates, the day an ad first aired or a mailer went out, or the expenditure date when no dissemination date was listed. Records were deduplicated by committee, transaction ID, candidate, amount and date to remove repeated entries from amended filings, though some duplicates may remain.
The Inquisitor excluded entries from two filers that reported implausible sums, including single line items of $1 billion or more, that do not match any known spending. A small number of records carried obviously mistaken dates or candidate names, including filings in South Carolina listing a candidate who is not on the ballot under that name; those were not used for any candidate-level figure in this article.
Independent expenditure reports filed within 20 days of an election often reflect estimated costs and may be revised. Spending by party committees that is coordinated with candidates, and issue ads that do not expressly advocate for or against a candidate, are not included.
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