RICHMOND, Va. — Rep. Rob Wittman is closing his campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson at his side, as outside groups pour far more money into helping his Democratic challenger, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, than into defending the Republican, who has held the seat since 2007, in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District.
Wittman’s campaign told supporters in an Oct. 28 campaign email that Johnson would join him at 3:30 p.m. Monday to launch a final round of door-knocking in the Richmond area, with the location given only to those who RSVP. Polls open Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m., according to the Virginia Department of Elections.
The same email laid out a full closing weekend: a get-out-the-vote rally Friday in Mechanicsville with Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas and former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, a “Super Saturday” canvass from the campaign’s Henrico office, a Sunday meet-and-greet at the Seaford Women’s Club in York County, and an election-night party Tuesday at Atlas 42 in Glen Allen.
The race is one of the most expensive House contests in the country. The Richmonder reported Sunday that advertising in the race had reached about $23.5 million, citing figures from the Virginia Public Access Project, with nearly $15 million spent on Taylor’s side and about $8.5 million on Wittman’s as of Thursday.
Outside money runs one way
An Inquisitor tally of the 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure notices that outside groups filed with the Federal Election Commission from June through Oct. 29 found about $13.8 million spent to support Taylor or oppose Wittman, against about $1.6 million spent to support Wittman or oppose Taylor. The tally removes duplicate and amended notices; because such notices are preliminary, final totals can shift when groups file their regular reports.
The gap has widened in the closing stretch. Since Oct. 15, groups reported about $5.9 million on the Democratic side and about $495,000 on the Republican side, by the same tally.
House Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with House Democratic leaders, accounts for the largest share, at about $7.19 million. It is followed by Your Community PAC at about $1.76 million, the LCV Victory Fund at about $1.5 million, Progressive Turnout Project at about $733,000, Ready for the Fight at about $683,000, AB PAC at about $623,000, CFFE PAC at about $325,000 and NRDC Action Votes at $300,000.
On Wittman’s side, the largest reported spenders were Commonwealth Action PAC at about $431,000, Civic Renewal Fund at about $391,000, No Going Back PAC at about $383,000, MAGA Inc. at about $119,000 and Center Forward Initiative at about $87,000.
The Inquisitor reported earlier on the scale of outside spending against Wittman in the district.
The candidates’ own money
Wittman has outraised Taylor overall but has spent down more of his war chest. His campaign reported raising $5,432,689 and spending $6,011,223 through Oct. 14, leaving $797,346 in cash, according to its pre-general report to the FEC. About $1.95 million of his receipts came from individual contributors.
Taylor reported raising $4,607,379 and spending $4,008,645 over the same period, with $598,734 on hand, according to her FEC filings. Individual contributions made up about $3.61 million of her total, nearly twice Wittman’s figure from individuals.
A district that split last year
The 1st District runs from the Richmond suburbs in Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield counties east to the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. The Richmonder reported that the district leaned toward Democrat Abigail Spanberger in last year’s governor’s race but favored Republicans for lieutenant governor and attorney general, and that Chesterfield holds about a quarter of its registered voters. The outlet also reported that election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe gives Taylor a 73% chance of winning.
Wittman, a former state delegate first elected to Congress in 2007, has framed the race around local concerns. “As much as people may want to try to nationalize the election, it still boils down to what’s important to people in their daily lives,” he told The Richmonder. “We talk about the national issues, but really, when you boil them down, they all still have that local connection.”
Taylor has served as Henrico’s elected prosecutor since 2012. Results will be posted Tuesday night by the Virginia Department of Elections.
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