Democrats lead in three of four Pennsylvania battleground House races as campaign money runs close to even

By Teresa Valdane

WASHINGTON — Democratic challengers lead in three of four Republican-held Pennsylvania battleground House districts and are tied in the fourth, according to New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena polls released Sunday, eight days before an election in which the four seats could help decide control of the House.

Every margin in the polls is within the error margin, and the money in the races is close to even. The four Democratic campaigns have raised $25.3 million this cycle, compared with $26.9 million for the four Republican incumbents, according to pre-general reports filed with the Federal Election Commission last week. The Democrats outraised the Republicans in the first two weeks of October, $1.58 million to $1.03 million, while the incumbents ended the period with slightly more cash, $3.54 million to $3.46 million.

The districts are the 1st, in Bucks County and part of Montgomery County, held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick; the 7th, in the Lehigh Valley, held by Rep. Ryan Mackenzie; the 8th, in northeastern Pennsylvania, held by Rep. Rob Bresnahan; and the 10th, including Harrisburg and York, held by Rep. Scott Perry. Mackenzie and Bresnahan won their seats in 2024 by defeating Democratic incumbents by less than two percentage points. Perry beat Democrat Janelle Stelson, his opponent again this year, by about 1.2 points.

The Inquisitor asked the eight campaigns, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to comment on the polls and filings.

The polls

The Siena Research Institute interviewed about 400 likely voters in each district by telephone from Oct. 16 to Oct. 22, 1,607 in all. The margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points in the First, Seventh and 10th districts and 5.8 points in the Eighth, and 2.9 points for the four districts combined, according to Leslie Foster of the Siena Research Institute.

Across the four districts combined, Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 49% to 46%. Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, led Republican Stacy Garrity 56% to 39% in the governor’s race, and 61% approved of his job performance.

President Donald Trump’s job approval among likely voters in the four districts was 39%, with 58% disapproving. Voters were closer to evenly split on his handling of immigration, with 48% approving and 51% disapproving. On the cost of living, 32% approved and 66% disapproved. The economy was the most commonly named top issue, at 25%, followed by inflation and the cost of living at 13% and immigration at 7%.

The Democratic leads average 3 points across the four districts, about the same as the 3-point Democratic edge on the combined generic ballot. The closest races are the 10th, where Perry and Stelson are tied at 48%, and the 1st, where Harvie leads Fitzpatrick by 2 points.

Most voters said their minds were made up: 57% said they decided before September, and 3% said they had not decided.

Cognetti had the best net rating of the eight candidates, and Mackenzie was the only one viewed more unfavorably than favorably. Fitzpatrick, first elected in 2016, was rated 43% favorable and 43% unfavorable after winning by nearly 13 points in 2024.

Brooks was the least known of the eight: 18% of likely voters in the Seventh District said they had not heard of him, according to Siena. Fitzpatrick and Perry were the best known, with 6% each saying they had not heard of them.

The 2024 baseline

The money

Each campaign filed a pre-general report covering Oct. 1 to Oct. 14. Candidate names link to the reports.

Stelson raised the most of the eight in the period and reported the most cash, more than twice Perry’s. Fitzpatrick spent the most, $1.92 million in two weeks, more than three times Harvie’s spending. Cognetti spent more than twice what Bresnahan did but ended with a third of his cash. Bresnahan’s committee reported $677,069 in debts, the most of the eight.

Individual donors made up a smaller share of the incumbents’ October receipts: 52% of the four Republicans’ combined total, compared with 76% for the four Democrats. Contributions from individuals accounted for $42,717 of Fitzpatrick’s $247,188, $61,764 of Mackenzie’s $129,641, $171,833 of Bresnahan’s $321,353 and $264,451 of Perry’s $334,518, according to the reports. For the challengers, individuals gave $224,541 of Harvie’s $272,041, $265,218 of Brooks’s $355,718, $274,575 of Cognetti’s $406,675 and $437,446 of Stelson’s $544,170.

Outside spending

Outside groups are spending far more than the candidates in some of the districts. Independent expenditures processed by the FEC so far show $2.71 million spent opposing Bresnahan and $2.61 million supporting Brooks. In the 10th District, groups have reported about $1.0 million supporting Perry and $856,000 opposing him.

Those totals understate the final stretch. Groups reported $383 million in large independent expenditures nationwide from Oct. 15 to Oct. 23, the Inquisitor reported Saturday, and the two parties’ House committees have put tens of millions into coordinated ads in a small set of districts, including Pennsylvania’s.

Myles Martin, a spokesman for the Federal Election Commission, said independent expenditures reported on Schedule E in 24- and 48-hour reports are usually available in the commission’s data within one to two days of filing, and that those reports are the best way to track outside spending after Oct. 15. The next full reports from PACs are due Dec. 3 and will cover activity through Nov. 23, he said.

What to watch

Republicans hold all four seats, and each is on both parties’ target lists. Fitzpatrick has raised more than twice as much as Harvie over the cycle, and the poll shows the race within the error margin. Perry and Stelson are in a rematch that was decided by about 5,000 votes two years ago. Mackenzie and Bresnahan are defending seats for the first time.

Fitzpatrick co-chairs the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Among the issues the poll tested, Trump’s ratings were strongest on immigration, where likely voters in the four districts were nearly evenly divided.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 3. Pennsylvania law does not let counties begin processing mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, so final results in close races can take days.

How we did this

Poll figures are from the Siena Research Institute release and PoliticsPA’s report of the full results; net favorability was calculated by the Inquisitor from the published components. Fundraising figures are from each principal campaign committee’s pre-general report, retrieved through the FEC’s API on Oct. 26. Cycle totals use the reports’ election cycle-to-date column. Independent expenditure totals are the FEC’s processed Schedule E totals by candidate and do not include party coordinated spending.